Financial Literacy

2016 Was A Recession

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The US economy continues to outperform the rest of the world despite the fear of trade wars and with weakness in emerging markets and Europe. The chart below, using Haver Analytics data, gives an example of the stupendous U.S. growth. The current vertical increase is rivaling the improvement from 2010…CONTINUE READING

Are Top 10 Companies The Reason Behind Market Growth?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The number of American public companies is in decline. We have documented this trend in What The Number Of Public Companies Means. There has been an increase in concentration in many industries due to M&A activity. The giant internet firms, which have large moats, dominate their markets because they were early…CONTINUE READING

Will Commodities, S&P 500 & Debt Mean Revert?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The focus of UPFINA is to be a website dedicated to showing you where investing arguments can go wrong. Our only purpose is to be objective in all regards and to understand the progression of history and economics with accuracy. Every investment thesis has a few fundamental pillars that are…CONTINUE READING

Are Equities Over-Owned By Households?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Let’s be clear, there are valuation metrics, principally the CAPE ratio, which show equity prices in June 2018 are expensive. However, that doesn’t mean you need to be mislead by other false bearish narratives. Stocks can have low long term returns and there can also be wrong bearish arguments. We…CONTINUE READING

What’s Really Driving Markets & Economic Growth?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Earnings growth is much more important than the financial media gives it credit. There are often stories about geopolitics, while there few about the rate of change of analysts’ estimates outside the reporting season. The true driver of equity performance, which is future earnings estimates, are very boring and are…CONTINUE READING

Avoid Investing Based On False Premises

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Surprisingly, there are popular bearish narratives even as the stock market is a few percentage points away from its all-time high and the economy is in one of the greatest quarters of this expansion. Since there are popular bearish narratives, there are myths for us to bust on the bearish…CONTINUE READING

Small Banks Are Disappearing

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Reading Time: 4 minutes There is a natural fear that if the economy isn’t regulated, risks will occur which can hurt bystanders. For example, people fear that if the banks aren’t regulated, then they will make risky loans and go bankrupt. However, if banks are allowed to operate in their best interest, many will…CONTINUE READING

Investing & Budgeting: Are High Paying Jobs Enough?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes In this article we are reviewing various career scenarios and how that could impact your decision making as it relates to budgeting and investing. While your career is often the most important component of your financial well-being, it can also be an aspect of your life that you have the least…CONTINUE READING

Business Cycles Have Become Longer

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Reading Time: 5 minutes It’s amazing how the economic situation has turned in the past 9 years. In 2009, investors and economists were discussing the possibility of how recessions were getting worse. That’s a daunting potential trend because a recession worse than the 2008 financial crisis would be catastrophic. There was recency bias in…CONTINUE READING

What Is Driving The Stock Bull Market Higher?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes This has been the 2nd greatest bull market since World War II. The chart below from The Leuthold Group shows the performance of the prior 12 bull markets along with the current one. If the bull market continues in the intermediate term, this bull’s performance can beat out the one in…CONTINUE READING

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