The housing market is heating up even if you exclude December’s spike in starts, which will help real residential investment growth in the Q4 GDP report.

The retail sales report mostly beat estimates, but previous readings were revised lower. Yearly growth was strong, but quarterly growth was weak.

The CPI and PPI reports imply core PCE inflation will increase, while the bond market shows investors don’t see above 2% GDP growth in 2020.

Energy prices boosted headline inflation, while shelter inflation dragged down core CPI despite the rise in medical care costs.

Stocks are overbought even though estimates call for just 1.8% 2020 GDP growth, plus the consumer will be hurt if real wage growth continues to fall.

The December labor report showed a sharp decline in non-supervisory and production wage growth in the past two months which is a troubling economic signal.

Stocks have rallied so much that sentiment indicators haven’t worked as contrarian signals for the past few years as consumer comfort hit a 19 year high…

The economy might be starting to turnaround according to previous cycle trends, but stocks are still expensive, so don’t expect more multiple expansion.

America’s trade deficit has been falling, which has big implications for Q4 GDP growth as it could potentially drive half of growth.

The global economy might see a cyclical turnaround in 2H 2020 because of the high net number of global central banks that cut rates in 2019.