S&P 500 EPS estimates have only fallen by half the amount while consumers see a recession just a few months after being the most optimistic in decades.

Small business confidence fell the most ever, with further room to fall in April. Dividends are expected to be cut and may not recover until 2024 or 2028.

This earnings season will be the least useful in years. If you wait for the economic data to be strong, you will miss most of the recovery in markets.

There will always be cruises and airlines, but shareholders might not benefit from the recovery. Know the balance sheets and income statements.

If the unemployment rate increases same as claims by 172%, it’ll be at 9.5%. The peak last recession was 10% and since Great Depression, 10.8% in 1982.

Stocks aren’t trading off economic data; they are trading off the number of COVID-19 cases, the shutdowns, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and sentiment.

Labor market is in the worst shape since the Great Depression. Odds of there being 1 million cases by April 15th in the US have fallen to 40% (74% on 3/28).

Here are potential pathway stocks and the economy could follow. Expectations are quite low even though the bottom’s up estimates are still way too high.

30% of the labor force will be gone if America follows the Hubei scenario. To be clear, that’s an unlikely worst case scenario.

This fiscal stimulus was almost twice as big as the one in 2009. Unfortunately, it won’t save the economy if the shutdowns last a few months.