Reading Time: 5 minutes The ongoing trade war is one of the biggest stories in finance this year as President Trump tries to lower the US trade deficit through tariffs. One of the most interesting factors of this situation when it comes to stocks is many investors and economists believe it is mostly rhetoric, but it is affecting marketsCONTINUE READING

Reading Time: 5 minutes Let’s be clear, there are valuation metrics, principally the CAPE ratio, which show equity prices in June 2018 are expensive. However, that doesn’t mean you need to mislead by other false bearish narratives. Stocks can have low long term returns and there can also be wrong bearish arguments. We care about the most accurate argumentsCONTINUE READING

Reading Time: 5 minutes Earnings growth is much more important than the financial media gives it credit. There are often stories about geopolitics, while there few about the rate of change of analysts’ estimates outside the reporting season. The true driver of equity performance, which is future earnings estimates, are very boring and are not as easy to writeCONTINUE READING

Reading Time: 5 minutes Financial Conditions Ripe For Speculation 2017 was an unusual year where financial conditions actually eased despite the Federal Reserve raising rates. The financial tightness in 2015 and 2016 was catalyzed by weakness in the energy market. With the help of central banks, as we have previously stated, the economy narrowly avoided a recession. It’s stillCONTINUE READING