The housing market is going to cool off in the next few months. Don’t get confused by this. It’s not the end of a bubble.

The 5 year breakeven rate is much higher than the 10 year rate. This is a negative term premium and is the largest negative gap in history.

Earnings estimate revisions have been very strong. While the housing market is doing very well, home price growth won’t stay at this level.

Other than during the 1990s tech bubble, the exuberance index has never been this high in the past 31 years.

Low vol stocks are underperforming the market by the most since 1999, as this indicator is outperforming the rest of the developed world.

There has been a dramatic decline in shareholders wanting companies to use their cash flow to improve their balance sheets.

The January retail sales report was very good and February should be decent while jobless claims could start falling sharply this spring.

Traditionally, if we were in an environment with high breakeven inflation and very low real yields, this would be a recipe for stagflation.

What seemed impossible in 2020 is happening in 2021. The yield curve is steepening and commodities are rallying.

America’s fertility rate is dropping quickly. It makes sense to have a plan now instead of waiting 20 years.