Will Fed Cut Rates With Stocks At Record Highs?
The Fed funds futures market is often wrong about the intermediate term future. A potential...
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UPFINA's Mission
The pursuit of truth in finance and economics to form an unbiased view of current events in order to understand human action, its causes and effects.
The Main Indicator That Impacts Early Fed Cut
As discussed in the article on the May PPI report, inflation needs to fall to give the Fed room to...
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How Important Is Stock Market To Economy?
Households own a large amount of stock. As of Q1 2019, U.S. households had $124.7 trillion in...
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Gap Between Job Openings & Hiring Increases
For much of the JOLTS report’s recent history, we have seen the gap between job openings and...
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Underemployment Rate Hits A New Cycle Low
The best way to describe the May labor report is most of the stats were consistent with a full...
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The Big Mistake When Analyzing Corporate Debt
Labor market data has been mostly good, although there have been a couple negative readings....
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Which May Services PMI Is Accurate?
The strong May ISM non-manufacturing report was a surprise because most economic reports have been...
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Is Economy Entering Recession Or Getting Out Of One?
Adding to the litany of economic reports that have caused the median Q2 GDP growth estimate to...
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Stocks Forecast An 18.8% Chance Of A Recession
If the average recession causes stocks to fall 26%, then the current correction (as of June 4th)...
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The Longest US Economic Expansion Or 2008 Style Recession Next?
If the economy doesn’t fall into a recession by June 2019, this will be tied for the longest...
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