Can Consumers Save Economy From Recession?
Is it possible for an economic slowdown/recession to not affect consumers? We review that plus the July retail report & record low inflation expectations.
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UPFINA's Mission
The pursuit of truth in finance and economics to form an unbiased view of current events in order to understand human action, its causes and effects.
Yield Curve & Household Leverage Predict Different Cyclical Outcomes
Yield curve inversions occur less than 2 years before recessions on average, but the story is more nuanced than that when looking at household leverage.
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Healthcare Services Inflation YoY Highest On Record
The July CPI report shows a conflicting picture while bearish sentiment matches 2008-9. Is small business confidence a contrarian indicator?
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How Low Could Interest Rates Go In The US?
With the most positive bond sentiment since 2008, we discuss the potential likelihood of negative interest rates and the theoretical limits.
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Hiring Growth Diverges From Retail Sales Growth
So much information, we couldn’t fit everything into the title. From housing, hiring and retail sales, to inflation and what the Fed does next.
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Is Extreme Bearishness A Contrarian Indicator?
Sentiment surveys show that investors got extremely nervous during this recent correction with the percentage of bears reaching as high as in December 2018.
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How Do Rate Cuts Affect The Stock Market?
US firms pay most of the investment grade yield globally. Now central banks are starting new rate cut cycles. How does this affect stocks?
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One Indicator Shows August 2019 Recession
Last time job openings peaked, we had a recession in 8 months. Is this time different?
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Is This Stock Market Correction Forecasting Disaster?
Is this stock market correction the start of a broader decline lower? There has been some surprising improvement in economic data, but not everywhere.
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YTD Average Monthly Job Creation Lowest Since 2010
New tariffs will impact capital & consumer goods, negatively affecting manufacturing growth, already weak ISM PMI & the slowing jobs market and wage growth.
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