In the US, in addition to weak manufacturing, services are now declining. In Europe, services vs manufacturing was the worst since the financial crisis.

This article reviews the implication for the economy, labor market and how it affects rate cut odds this year. Is the Fed behind the curve?

Is a recession in the US the base case now? This article discusses the signals to watch and their historical record. Here’s why things might get worse…

Are low interest rates enough to offset the high cost of real estate in the US or will we see negative interest rate mortgages to increase housing demand?

How important is manufacturing to the US and global economy? Yearly industrial production growth is nearly negative and manufacturing growth is negative.

The July CPI report shows a conflicting picture while bearish sentiment matches 2008-9. Is small business confidence a contrarian indicator?

With the most positive bond sentiment since 2008, we discuss the potential likelihood of negative interest rates and the theoretical limits.