This dot plot might be a misnomer because many FOMC members reacted to near term inflation

The 10 year yield usually falls after CPI peaks, but this time might be different because it was so obvious CPI would peak in May.

EPS growth peaked, as equities as a percentage of household assets just hit a record high.

This doesn’t mean stocks are immune from a correction. That’s why investors get paid a return above CDs.

Energy is tougher to predict. It could have a big impact on headline inflation in the 2nd half (could keep it high).

Low wage workers are getting real raises in the service sector. Interestingly, inflation can fall while oil prices rise.

The 10 year yield is much lower than core PCE inflation indicates. That’s because inflation is about to peak this summer.

The economy is headed back to normal; we just don’t know what normal looks like as inflation is peaking. Look for CPI to fall soon…

If job creation stays at this pace, it will take until July 2023 for the economy to recover all the jobs lost in the recession.

As of 2019, median incomes were down for millennials. Let’s see if the pandemic economy impacted this.