The jobless claims report improved in two ways. The percentage drop was larger & number of continued claims fell, usually signaling the end of recessions.

The economy is improving as expected, however at a very slow pace as labor market weakness continues. Here are the risks that continue to permeat…

Most of the workforce won’t shift to remote work. Q2 earnings will be terrible, but many firms will bring back guidance which could be a huge positive.

This has been the 3rd largest bear market rally partially because of the extreme fiscal and monetary stimulus programs, but also because of…

We’ve seen a spike in valuations like the rally in 2009, but the key difference here is multiples are much higher because of growth stocks.

Jobless claims are simply too high. They have been falling for 7 weeks, but they didn’t fall enough this past week. The unemployment rate is well over 20%.

The Fed Minutes are much closer to reality than the stock market. Stocks have done so well that people think stocks would be lower if COVID-19 didn’t occur.

The NY Fed weekly economic index is still falling. The savings rate is projected to spike despite the increased speculation in stocks.

A balanced view on everything from reopening, growth vs value, stock market outperformance and the new normal. Or is it a new normal?

Consumers expect higher inflation in next year and 5 years as stocks with the best balance sheets have outperformed highly indebted low credit rating firms.