This Metric Hints Cycle Timing

Consumers appear to be correct with the rate of change of their long run inflation expectations. In the latest survey, one year inflation estimates increased 0.1% to 2.8% and 5 year expectations fell 0.2% to 2.3%. As you can see from the chart below, this matches the cycle low for longer run inflation estimates. Source:CONTINUE READING


Financial Literacy

How Are Median Americans Doing?

What makes economics more frustrating than investing is that the truth is never completely settled. When you buy a stock with the plan to hold it for 5 years, the price in 5 years is guaranteed to tell you whether it was a good investment or not. Economic analysis is never complete because there willCONTINUE READING



Is There Supply Left In The Labor Force?

The jobless claims to labor force population ratio hit a record low, the ISM labor market index hit a record high, the unemployment rate is the lowest since 1969, and September average weekly earnings growth of 3.35% was the 3rd highest in this expansion. Those are some of the powerful indicators which show the laborCONTINUE READING



Long-Term Unemployment Rate Is 20%

The March BLS monthly jobs report was a disappointment in terms of total job creation as only 103,000 were added instead of the 175,000 expected. Furthermore, the report missed the lowest expectation which was for 112,000. It’s important to recognize this is a volatile data point. The February job growth was revised higher from 313,000CONTINUE READING

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