The ratio of the leading & coincident index has been flat, but the 6 month moving average of the 6 month rate of change is about to signal a recession.

The Fed’s guidance doesn’t make much sense. The fed sees higher real GDP growth in 2019 despite the fact that they needed to do two rate cuts?

A relatively high net percentage of fund managers see a global recession in the next year and the manufacturing recession might just be a slowdown.

The Cass Freight index shows the level of economic weakness is getting closer to the 2015 to 2016 slowdown as fund managers start chasing US equities.

Yearly restaurant sales growth had the weakest growth rate since February 2010 when the economy was just exiting the last recession.

Headline CPI missed estimates and core CPI beat estimates. This article details how that happened and the impact on monetary policy.

Bullish investors shouldn’t want the curve to normalize as steepening after inversions has been correlated with recessions in past cycles.

Tariffs haven’t impacted consumer spending negatively yet. The July JOLTS report was actually good despite the weakness in job openings.

Aggregate hours worked growth is weak and usually such weakness occurs before a recession. Plus, what is driving the decline in the global composite PMI?

The August BLS had both good news and bad news. A very surprising change in the prime age labor force participation rate could provide the clue.