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Is The Recession Over?

The jobless claims report improved in two ways. The percentage drop was larger & number of continued claims fell, usually signaling the end of recessions.

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Jobless Claims Still High

Jobless claims are simply too high. They have been falling for 7 weeks, but they didn’t fall enough this past week. The unemployment rate is well over 20%.

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No Bottom In Sales Growth

The NY Fed weekly economic index is still falling. The savings rate is projected to spike despite the increased speculation in stocks.

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