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Will Commodities, S&P 500 & Debt Mean Revert?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The focus of UPFINA is to be a website dedicated to showing you where investing arguments can go wrong. Our only purpose is to be objective in all regards and to understand the progression of history and economics with accuracy. Every investment thesis has a few fundamental pillars that are…CONTINUE READING

What’s Really Driving Markets & Economic Growth?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Earnings growth is much more important than the financial media gives it credit. There are often stories about geopolitics, while there few about the rate of change of analysts’ estimates outside the reporting season. The true driver of equity performance, which is future earnings estimates, are very boring and are…CONTINUE READING

Avoid Investing Based On False Premises

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Surprisingly, there are popular bearish narratives even as the stock market is a few percentage points away from its all-time high and the economy is in one of the greatest quarters of this expansion. Since there are popular bearish narratives, there are myths for us to bust on the bearish…CONTINUE READING

Business Cycles Have Become Longer

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Reading Time: 5 minutes It’s amazing how the economic situation has turned in the past 9 years. In 2009, investors and economists were discussing the possibility of how recessions were getting worse. That’s a daunting potential trend because a recession worse than the 2008 financial crisis would be catastrophic. There was recency bias in…CONTINUE READING

What Is Driving The Stock Bull Market Higher?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes This has been the 2nd greatest bull market since World War II. The chart below from The Leuthold Group shows the performance of the prior 12 bull markets along with the current one. If the bull market continues in the intermediate term, this bull’s performance can beat out the one in…CONTINUE READING

Where Is Inflation Headed Next?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Since the economy is in the late stages of the business cycle, inflation is the most important economic metric to watch. If inflation spikes, the Fed theoretically needs to raise rates to reduce growth. If inflation gradually increases, the Fed can slowly raise rates and stave off a recession for…CONTINUE READING

Next Recession Might Not Be So Bad

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Reading Time: 5 minutes M&A Activity Is On A Record Pace Even though the economy should grow strongly in 2018, at least in the United States, there are some warning signs of a potential recession we will discuss. It’s always important to understand both the bullish and bearish case for equities and the economy.…CONTINUE READING

Myths & Facts: Fundamental Investing

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Reading Time: 5 minutes In this article we will review a couple of dynamic changes in the market and one myth which needs to be busted. One of the most important questions on Wall Street is if correlated metrics have a causal relationship. Even when relationships have been correlated for years, that doesn’t mean…CONTINUE READING

The US Is In Secular Economic Decline

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Reading Time: 5 minutes A statement popular in business is “if you’re not growing, you’re dying” (attributed to William Burroughs). It’s a great quote because it shows how quickly a business can fail. Unfortunately, America’s economy is trending in the wrong direction as growth is falling towards the flatline in expansions. If an economy…CONTINUE READING

What To Do In A Selloff?

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Reading Time: 4 minutes The most important factor which determines if you successfully deal with a selloff is how you are positioned before one. When faced with a correction or a bear market your portfolio’s risk needs to be properly set to your personality, age, goals, savings and overall position in your life. It’s very…CONTINUE READING

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