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Solution To Wealth Inequality

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Weakness in real median income is the backbone of the income inequality debate because if median incomes are increasing people don’t care as much about how well the rich are doing. If people have jobs and are getting raises, they aren’t willing to protest. If they are getting real pay…CONTINUE READING

Past & Future US Equity Performance

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Everyone knows the bull market is 9 years old; it is the longest bull market ever. However, the length of the bull market is largely irrelevant because it came very close to ending. It’s arbitrary to say a bear market is a 20% decline, but not a 19% decline. Returns…CONTINUE READING

Link Between Inflation & Output Gap

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The output gap is the highest since the 1970s suggesting that inflation should be significantly increasing in the coming years. However, can the two indicators both be correct, with there being subdued inflation as measured currently and with the economy above its potential?

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Is Real Fed Funds Rate Peaking?

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Q2 GDP growth was revised higher from 4.1% to 4.2% even though the estimate for real consumption growth was revised lower from 4% to 3.8%. That being said, the consumer had a strong rebound from Q1 and still drove GDP growth to an amazing result. The obvious question is whether…CONTINUE READING

New Risk Resistant Economy

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Recency bias is causing many investors and economists to believe we are in a new era of uncertainty because of the dot com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. It’s like saying inflation would always stay high after the bout of inflation caused by monetary policy mistakes in the late…CONTINUE READING

Revenue Growth Drives Shareholder Returns

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The market works in long term cycles even though it seems like changes occur often. There will always be news which drives short term action, but in the long run there are strategies which last for years or even decades. In the past 11 years, growth stocks have outperformed value…CONTINUE READING

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