Markets & Economy

Are Americans In Good Financial Shape?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes One of the biggest stories in personal finance in May came from the 2017 Report on the Economic Well-Being of Households from the Fed. The report has over 60 pages of interesting data points which mostly includes stats on the personal finance of Americans, but also touches on the opioid…CONTINUE READING

US Economic Growth Pushes Yields Higher

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The biggest trend in markets is the US economy’s outperformance over emerging markets and other developed economies. The data keeps adding up and expanding into a pervasive trend. Japan was added to the list of economies with tepid economic growth which fell to -0.2% in Q1, down from +0.6% in…CONTINUE READING

Home Renters Highest Since 1965

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Reading Time: 4 minutes There are two ways to look at the charts from Pew Research which shows the percentage of household heads who rent their home. The first is to say the percentage is going back to historical norms so there’s not much of a reason to worry. The second is to say…CONTINUE READING

Economy Not Working For Millennials

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Reading Time: 4 minutes The economic expansion from 2009-2018 hasn’t been helping most millennials because the biggest benefits have been gained by those who own assets like stocks. Without asset price improvements, this recovery hasn’t been great as the employment to population ratio has improved, but wage growth has been mediocre. The catastrophe that…CONTINUE READING

Recession In 2020 Is The Base Case

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Reading Time: 5 minutes In a previous article we showed that Guggenheim expects a recession in the 2nd half of 2019. Wall Street has the stigma that everything is always bullish, or as some managers say, “it’s always a good time to invest”, in order to receive more capital to manage even though they might…CONTINUE READING

Explanation Of Corporate Debt & Leveraged Loans

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Reading Time: 5 minutes There has been a huge increase in corporate debt to record levels, but the cost to service the debt is manageable because interest rates are low and investors are extremely sanguine. As you can see from the chart below, the spread between junk bonds and investment grade bonds is the…CONTINUE READING

European Economy Not On Trend With America

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The US and Europe are in significantly different situations in terms of economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy. America’s year over year core PCE is 1.9% as of March and its core CPI is 2.1% as of April. That’s exactly where the Fed wants inflation to be as the target…CONTINUE READING

Growth & Inflation Are Not The Same

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Ever since the economy started weakening in 2007 all the way until the Fed’s first hike of this cycle in late 2014, the Fed’s main concern has been boosting economic growth and improving employment. There has been mediocre success on the growth front, primarily a function of demographics, but luckily…CONTINUE READING

Myth Busting: Weak C&I Lending As % Of GDP

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Macroeconomic analysis is not about finding indicators and mindlessly listening to them. The game is difficult because the world is always changing. There might be a reason to discount (attribute less importance on) an indicator even after it has had a great track record of forecasting results. The better the…CONTINUE READING

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