Markets & Economy

Factors Affecting Inflation Through End Of 2018

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The economy is heading towards the sweet spot for the consumer as gas prices are declining and wage growth is accelerating. Real hourly wage growth was 0.7% in October. This improvement in the health of the consumer explains why Wal-Mart had same store sales growth of 3.4% in Q3 which…CONTINUE READING

Forecast Dependent, Not Data Dependent

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This article will review Fed chair Powell’s latest comments on Fed policy. Powell sung a hawkish tune on November 14th even though CPI showed core inflation decelerated in October. This reminds us that the Fed isn’t data dependent like it says. The Fed is forecast dependent. If the Fed’s models…CONTINUE READING

Can A Positive Yield Curve Signal A Recession?

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Some economic statistics have a very high correlation with the stock market. It’s important to follow them while looking for reasons why the correlation can end. Some say when an indicator becomes followed too closely, it loses all meaning. The jobless claims have historically been correlated with stocks. The question…CONTINUE READING

Leading Index Falls 2.6% (139 Week Low)

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The biggest question on monetary policy is how close the Fed is to ending its tightening cycle. While bullish investors may want the Fed to stop pressing on the breaks, which is the analogy for raising rates, usually after the hike cycle ends there is a recession. That’s a situation…CONTINUE READING

New Home Inventory Forecasts A Recession

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It seems like almost every new data point on housing shows weakness. That’s because even though millennials are entering their prime age for home buying, starter homes have become unaffordable. Housing prices for houses less than 75% of the cost of median houses increased 8.9% from September 2016 to September…CONTINUE READING

October Labor Report: Effects On Workers & Investors

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The declining job creation growth from 2015-2017 on a year over year basis caused fear because it implies the labor market cycle is nearing its end. However, those fears have been abated in 2018. The October report showed 250,000 jobs added which beat estimates for 190,000. The September report was…CONTINUE READING

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