Core CPI

World Trade Growth Expected To Decline From 4.9% To 3.7%

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The Personal Income and Outlays report is widely followed because it provides information on the two most important factors in macroeconomics: inflation and consumer spending. Even though it is delayed, the Fed watches this inflation reading the closest, thus making it very important. Month over month August PCE inflation was…CONTINUE READING

Was The August Jobs Report Good or Bad?

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The most interesting part of reviewing the labor market stats is how two analysts can look at the same data and can extrapolate completely different conclusions. We’ll show you the positive and negative theses from the August labor report. First let’s review the headlines. Even in the headlines there is…CONTINUE READING

Core Inflation Hasn’t Done This Since 2008

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Inflation could be the most important metric to follow because if it gets too high, the Fed will need to accelerate rate hikes which could cause a yield curve inversion and later a recession. One very important thing to keep in mind before we analyze the inflation numbers is the…CONTINUE READING

Gold vs Inflation: Not What You Expect

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We’ve had some readers question the Fed’s use of CPI as a measurement of price inflation. The chart below might satiate them as it shows the eight components of CPI. Medical costs have pushed inflation higher. Keep in mind, this is over a 17 year period. We’re not ignoring the…CONTINUE READING

Consumer Prices Rise Highest Since 2007

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One of the major trends of 2018 is likely to be the acceleration of inflation growth, as we have discussed previously in the following articles: Why Inflation Will Increase In 2018 Long-Term Inflation Pressures The Fed has longed for inflation for years because it consistently has been below its goal…CONTINUE READING