Labor Market

The Reason Behind Rising Yields

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Headline September job growth missed estimates, but the positive revisions to the July and August readings were bigger than the September miss. This explains why it’s best to look at the report holistically. There’s temptation to just look at the most recent month to get an early look at the…CONTINUE READING

The Next Recession Could Be In 2019

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With Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth at 26.58%, core PCE inflation only at 2%, and small business optimism at the highest level in the 45 year history of the NFIB survey, there’s not much reason to be bearish on equities in the intermediate term. The biggest concern in the next…CONTINUE READING

Was The August Jobs Report Good or Bad?

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The most interesting part of reviewing the labor market stats is how two analysts can look at the same data and can extrapolate completely different conclusions. We’ll show you the positive and negative theses from the August labor report. First let’s review the headlines. Even in the headlines there is…CONTINUE READING

July Employment Report: 2 Years of Job Growth Left?

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It’s easy to get dismayed by the headlines because the total job growth in July was 157,000, which missed estimates for 190,000 jobs created. Usually, these reports have details which conflict with the headlines. This one is no different as the fundamentals of the labor market remain strong. The best…CONTINUE READING