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The coming decline in continued claims, which will mark the end of the recession, will be the most severe ever, otherwise this recovery will take decades.

Investors are bearish according to the AAII investor sentiment survey while the stock market is climbing the wall of worry which is bullish.

The bearish case for stocks is that the economy is in a deep recession. The bullish case is that the economy is weak now, but improving.

The high unemployment rate and the fact that the S&P 500 now yields significantly more than the 10 year yield are great for stock market performance.

Heading into this recession, we thought the economy could be more recession resistant because more jobs are in healthcare which isn’t cyclical.

The Fed is implementing new never before seen programs in the US, while the unemployment rate is over 20% which will bear out in the May BLS report.

There has been multiple expansion in 2020 even though stocks started the year with high multiples. Is this rally sustainable?

The current unemployment rate is in the low 20s while consumer confidence on the present is terrible, but future expectations actually improved.

The bottom 50% of consumers wasn’t in great shape before this recession. Now, 15% of households expect to be delinquent on their loans in the next 3 months.

Stocks and consumer sentiment tend to be correlated. Now, consumers are relatively optimistic in relation to current conditions. A contrarian indicator?