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2.1% GDP growth seems normal, until you look at real final sales to domestic purchasers growth which excludes trade, inventory investment, & gov spending.

This article discusses the chart which ranks economic data across 5 factors: timeliness, revisions, volatility, surprise, and correlation.

Consumers have high free cash flow as the consumer confidence report agrees with that assessment and regional Fed reports imply the ISM PMI will rise to 56.

This article discusses the impact of the Primary election on the stock market as well as the newly proposed yield capping as a policy tool.

EPS growth estimates for the next year have improved but that doesn’t mean stocks will do well because returns and EPS growth don’t always correlate.

The Leading Economic Indicators and ECRI coincident index show growth was weak in December as Q4 GDP growth estimates are looking weak.

EPS growth doesn’t tell you where returns will end up. The Sharpe ratio for most major investments on average is 89%, highest since atleast 1999.

The most crowded trade is long U.S. tech and growth and the most prominent fat tail risk is the U.S. election according to investors.

85% of companies in the S&P 500 had PE multiple expansion. This is the largest percentage since at least 2003. Here’s why it could continue…

The housing market is heating up even if you exclude December’s spike in starts, which will help real residential investment growth in the Q4 GDP report.