New Cycle High In 3 Month Average New Home Sales
When we have positive headlines, less people are interested in the content than if the headline was negative. Regardless, our goal is understanding reality.
Read MoreSep 26, 2019
When we have positive headlines, less people are interested in the content than if the headline was negative. Regardless, our goal is understanding reality.
Read MoreSep 20, 2019
The ratio of the leading & coincident index has been flat, but the 6 month moving average of the 6 month rate of change is about to signal a recession.
Read MoreSep 19, 2019
The Fed’s guidance doesn’t make much sense. The fed sees higher real GDP growth in 2019 despite the fact that they needed to do two rate cuts?
Read MoreSep 12, 2019
Bullish investors shouldn’t want the curve to normalize as steepening after inversions has been correlated with recessions in past cycles.
Read MoreAug 23, 2019
In the US, in addition to weak manufacturing, services are now declining. In Europe, services vs manufacturing was the worst since the financial crisis.
Read MoreAug 22, 2019
This article reviews the implication for the economy, labor market and how it affects rate cut odds this year. Is the Fed behind the curve?
Read MoreAug 21, 2019
Is a recession in the US the base case now? This article discusses the signals to watch and their historical record. Here’s why things might get worse…
Read MoreAug 16, 2019
Is it possible for an economic slowdown/recession to not affect consumers? We review that plus the July retail report & record low inflation expectations.
Read MoreAug 14, 2019
The July CPI report shows a conflicting picture while bearish sentiment matches 2008-9. Is small business confidence a contrarian indicator?
Read MoreAug 13, 2019
With the most positive bond sentiment since 2008, we discuss the potential likelihood of negative interest rates and the theoretical limits.
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