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The economy is going to improve sharply in the next few months, but don’t expect cyclical stocks to explode on these great readings.

The only thing we know for certain is that this “new market regime” won’t be permanent just like the last one wasn’t.

We could actually be a few quarters away from a manufacturing recession.

Fiscal policy in 2020 was so successful that more people with just a high school diploma said they were doing well financially compared to the prior year.

Consumers became less optimistic following the spike in inflation in May. This an issue investors should watch out for in the next few months.

The market doesn’t expect inflation to stay as high as it was in April. Keep that in mind before you short the reflation trade.

Higher inflation and rates are bad for stocks. The S&P 500 can’t trade at above a 20 PE multiple in that environment.

The labor market is tight even though the unemployment rate is high. This is the impact of the pandemic and stimulus measures.

Permanent unemployment rose in April as job openings are spiking much quicker than hires which signals high dislocation in the labor market.

If this report holds up through revisions, we can look to initial jobless claims excluding Ohio as the early warning sign that correctly predicted this weak headline reading.