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At the start of 2020 there was a slew of minimum wage increases across the US and some more later in the year. Could this mean trouble for the economy?

The manufacturing sector continues to decline as immigration growth has slowed which is bad for the long term potential growth of the U.S. economy.

The capex indexes in the regional Fed reports have increased even though the headline indexes have all fallen while ECRI is about to face tough comparisons.

Stocks are overbought while 52% of US CFOs think the US will be in a recession by Q4 2020 and 76% of CFOs think there will be a recession by mid-2021.

Retail sales were likely pushed into December while this is probably the second best period for low income workers in many decades.

The Fed cut rates in hopes it can turn the economy around, but rate cuts don’t always prevent recessions, but they can help the economy improve.

Stocks are overbought according to many metrics, and more expensive than average while the leading indicators index is almost signaling a recession.

The yield curve is steepening, the stock market is rallying, the US PMI is bottoming, and expectations for global profits are increasing

Housing, a good leading indicator, is doing well as home builder confidence is the best in 20 years, but don’t base a conclusion on just one indicator.

Since December 2018 the PE multiple has increased from 14.52 to 17.67 while 92% of the gains have come from multiple expansion not earnings growth.