debt

The Debt Is High, But Does It Matter?

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The US stock market has been on a fantastic run in 2018 even though returns are close to the historical average because other markets have seen weakness. As you can see from the chart below, US stocks underperformed last cycle and outperformed this cycle.  Source: Bank Of America Merrill Lynch…CONTINUE READING

World Earnings Excluding Tech At Pre-Crisis Levels

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It’s hasn’t been surprising to see the Fed’s projections for rate hikes differ from the futures market in this expansion. The interesting part about the current divergence seen in the chart below is that the Fed could be near the end of the hike cycle.  Source: Pension Partners The futures…CONTINUE READING

US Debt Becoming A Problem For The Dollar

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Some analysts speculated if the Fed would try to keep rates low to support the government’s spending binge. However, instead of worrying about the debt, the $400 billion spending plan and the tax cuts are being used as an excuse to raise interest rates and let the government bonds on…CONTINUE READING

Student Loans Crisis: Is College Worth It?

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Imagine every grain of sand on a beach was actually a grain of gold.  That is a lot of gold.  Imagine what would appear to be infinite amounts of gold.  Miles and miles of gold.  How much is it worth?  Probably not that much to anyone because if you actually…CONTINUE READING

Why Is China Dumping US Treasuries?

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China is a major manufacturer of merchandise. They are the world’s second largest economy, following the United States. China is the world’s biggest exporter of goods and have the largest trade surplus. That trade surplus results in vast currency reserves. This positive balance of trade for China has continued to…CONTINUE READING

Quantitative Easing (QE): Are We Making A Mistake?

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The current path of monetary policy in the form of quantitative easing (QE) world wide and particularly in the United States is following a dangerous trajectory, one that has a historical precedent without looking back several centuries. This disastrously flawed monetary experiment has plagued Japans economy and its people since the…CONTINUE READING

Interest Rates Vs. Bond Prices: How Do Bonds Work?

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There is an inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates. This is all a matter of supply and demand. And, if you understand the inverse relationship then you will better understand the way interest rates move. What Is A Bond? Bonds are debt instruments. There are two basic types…CONTINUE READING

What Happened To Your Savings?

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The United States and its citizens are generally not known to be the world’s biggest savers, not for the last few decades at least. The current rate of savings is 5.5% in the United States. Other countries grab the distinction with savings in low double digits. While some may immediately get…CONTINUE READING

The U.S. Trade Deficit: What’s Next?

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No aspect of American trade is talked about more and understood less than the trade deficit of the United States. However despite that, the U.S. trade deficit has almost nothing to do with trade policy. A nation’s trade deficit is determined by the flow of investment capital into or out of the…CONTINUE READING

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