Author: UPFINA

Energy is tougher to predict. It could have a big impact on headline inflation in the 2nd half (could keep it high).

Low wage workers are getting real raises in the service sector. Interestingly, inflation can fall while oil prices rise.

The 10 year yield is much lower than core PCE inflation indicates. That’s because inflation is about to peak this summer.

The economy is headed back to normal; we just don’t know what normal looks like as inflation is peaking. Look for CPI to fall soon…

If job creation stays at this pace, it will take until July 2023 for the economy to recover all the jobs lost in the recession.