Monthly Archives: June, 2018

Are Banks Safe & Only One More Rate Hike?

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Reading Time: 4 minutes Ever since the Dodd-Frank regulations were passed in 2010, the Fed has stress tested the largest banks to see if they have healthy capital ratios to lend even in a deeply recessionary environment. The stress tests also are qualitative to see if the proper internal controls are in place at…CONTINUE READING

Expensive Valuations & Late Cycle Indicators

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Investors are trying to figure out what it will take for the bull market to reach a new record high. Records have been set in the Russell 2000, the tech sector, and the S&P 400, but the most followed index, which is the S&P 500, hasn’t broken its January 26th…CONTINUE READING

The Effects Of Heated Trade Rhetoric

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The intensifying trade talk between America and the EU and China have been the number one cause of market volatility this year. 9 out of the first 9 S&P 500 firms reporting earnings in Q2 beat estimates, but that’s irrelevant to the market when there is the potential for a…CONTINUE READING

Will Commodities, S&P 500 & Debt Mean Revert?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The focus of UPFINA is to be a website dedicated to showing you where investing arguments can go wrong. Our only purpose is to be objective in all regards and to understand the progression of history and economics with accuracy. Every investment thesis has a few fundamental pillars that are…CONTINUE READING

Are Equities Over-Owned By Households?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Let’s be clear, there are valuation metrics, principally the CAPE ratio, which show equity prices in June 2018 are expensive. However, that doesn’t mean you need to be mislead by other false bearish narratives. Stocks can have low long term returns and there can also be wrong bearish arguments. We…CONTINUE READING

Trade War: A Position Of Strength For…

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The ongoing trade war is one of the biggest stories in finance this year as President Trump tries to lower the US trade deficit through tariffs. One of the most interesting factors of this situation when it comes to stocks is many investors and economists believe it is mostly rhetoric,…CONTINUE READING

Real Wage Growth Usually Weak Before Recessions

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Reading Time: 5 minutes There are many stories in the financial press about how wage growth is accelerating as the labor market tightens. It’s important to contextualize these claims. Nominal wage growth is accelerating as seen in the hourly earnings growth and the weekly earnings growth. The Employment Cost Index, which measures wages and…CONTINUE READING

What’s Really Driving Markets & Economic Growth?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Earnings growth is much more important than the financial media gives it credit. There are often stories about geopolitics, while there few about the rate of change of analysts’ estimates outside the reporting season. The true driver of equity performance, which is future earnings estimates, are very boring and are…CONTINUE READING

Avoid Investing Based On False Premises

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Surprisingly, there are popular bearish narratives even as the stock market is a few percentage points away from its all-time high and the economy is in one of the greatest quarters of this expansion. Since there are popular bearish narratives, there are myths for us to bust on the bearish…CONTINUE READING

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