Monthly Archives: March, 2018

Does The Fed Cause Inequality?

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Reading Time: 6 minutes Note: Our goal is to follow the facts, wherever they may lead. If your argument is better, let us know and we will adjust our framework. While sometimes events appear to be white or black, often the truth is in the middle, a muddied up gray, therefore rarely are their…CONTINUE READING

Global Growth Is Slowing

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Despite significant controversy surrounding the trade war between the US and China, which the WSJ recently pointed out that China was the first to start, the economy will barely be affected by the recently announced tariffs. Currently, based on speculation and rhetoric, the trend appears to be towards negotiation rather…CONTINUE READING

Stock Buybacks Outperform CAPEX Spending

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Reading Time: 5 minutes In the past few years stock buybacks have been increasingly criticized by investors who believe the stock market and economy are in a bubble. The main evidence they bring to the table is that companies bought back a record amount of their own shares before the financial crisis in 2008.…CONTINUE READING

Do Millennials Switch Jobs More Often?

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Reading Time: 4 minutes In a previous article, we discussed some of the benefits of renting a house compared to buying it. We presented the argument as to why renting is better than buying while filling in the gaps which are counterpoints as to why buying might be better. While most of the arguments…CONTINUE READING

Slowest Hike Cycle Since 1977

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Reading Time: 4 minutes In this article, we’re going to look at the three main causes of the stock market correction that occurred in March which came close to matching the lows set in February. When you understand the reasons the market fell, it helps you figure out where stocks will likely go for…CONTINUE READING

The Future Of The Labor Market

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The problem with the labor market for the millennial generation is young adults need to get a college degree for jobs that previously didn’t require them. Four years of education and about $35,000 in debt later, young people are ready to enter the labor force. The chart below shows the…CONTINUE READING

Is More Fed Transparency Worse For Markets?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Obviously, Powell taking the helm at the Federal Reserve means potential policy changes, but that’s not the only thing that could change. The Fed’s communication strategy could also change. Its communication is how it delivers forward guidance. It’s arguable that the Fed’s forward guidance is the most important tool it…CONTINUE READING

Is Record Business Optimism A Contrarian Indicator?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The purpose of this article is to objectively examine regulations and the impact on the economy. While there will be discussion of government policy, our review is not negatively nor positively inclined towards any particular administration. Many in the United States are in favor of increased regulations, however the unintended…CONTINUE READING

Is The S&P 500 The Best Investment For The Future?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Before this article receives hate comments from both bullish and bearish investors, the purpose of this article is to discuss the average historical and projected lifespan of companies included in the S&P 500 index, as well as discussing whether the S&P 500 should be considered as an active manager going…CONTINUE READING

The Most Important Chart In Macroeconomics

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Reading Time: 4 minutes We’ve discussed the meaning of the 10 year bond yield at length in a couple articles. For almost this entire bull market, the point that low yields are causing stocks to go up has been repeated endlessly. That call didn’t matter much when yields were going down because it simply…CONTINUE READING

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