Author UPFINA

UPFINA discerns insight from noise as it pertains to the economy, investing and money. Whether you goal is to save, invest or retire, UPFINA helps simplify your decisions. The purpose is unabated truth. We encourage for you to read all content on this website with implicit skepticism. Listen to all, follow none. Challenge every statement made and juxtapose any and all information.

The Debt Is High, But Does It Matter?

By
By

The US stock market has been on a fantastic run in 2018 even though returns are close to the historical average because other markets have seen weakness. As you can see from the chart below, US stocks underperformed last cycle and outperformed this cycle.  Source: Bank Of America Merrill Lynch…CONTINUE READING

The Trade War Just Started

By
By

With the US stock market near its all-time high and having a solid year, it’s easy to miss out on the global growth deceleration. The global economy is by no means terrible, but it has seen deceleration as the global synchronized growth narrative disappeared, with emerging markets feeling a significant…CONTINUE READING

Optimism Doesn’t Match Economic Growth

By
By

In this article we will be showing various data points from different perspectives. We like to give you all the information to make the best possible decisions. The goal isn’t to push any narrative, political agenda, nor market perspective. The value provided is helping you understand the details behind various…CONTINUE READING

Inflation Falls: Is The Economy Even Late Cycle?

By
By

As we previously discussed, real wage growth is becoming a reality, having appeared in August. Average hourly earnings were up 2.9% and weekly earnings growth was 3.2%. Inflation stats have come in below expectations as we will discuss in this article. Before we get to that, it’s worth noting that…CONTINUE READING

Solution To Wealth Inequality

By
By

Weakness in real median income is the backbone of the income inequality debate because if median incomes are increasing people don’t care as much about how well the rich are doing. If people have jobs and are getting raises, they aren’t willing to protest. If they are getting real pay…CONTINUE READING

The Next Recession Could Be In 2019

By
By

With Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth at 26.58%, core PCE inflation only at 2%, and small business optimism at the highest level in the 45 year history of the NFIB survey, there’s not much reason to be bearish on equities in the intermediate term. The biggest concern in the next…CONTINUE READING

Past & Future US Equity Performance

By
By

Everyone knows the bull market is 9 years old; it is the longest bull market ever. However, the length of the bull market is largely irrelevant because it came very close to ending. It’s arbitrary to say a bear market is a 20% decline, but not a 19% decline. Returns…CONTINUE READING

Was The August Jobs Report Good or Bad?

By
By

The most interesting part of reviewing the labor market stats is how two analysts can look at the same data and can extrapolate completely different conclusions. We’ll show you the positive and negative theses from the August labor report. First let’s review the headlines. Even in the headlines there is…CONTINUE READING

The Myth Of Retiring Early

By
By

Some of the most widely shared articles on the internet are on the concept of FIRE. Fire stands for Financial Independence Retire Early. The basic assumption is that you hate your job, so you will be happier by saving most of your money while you are working with the goal…CONTINUE READING

World Earnings Excluding Tech At Pre-Crisis Levels

By
By

It’s hasn’t been surprising to see the Fed’s projections for rate hikes differ from the futures market in this expansion. The interesting part about the current divergence seen in the chart below is that the Fed could be near the end of the hike cycle.  Source: Pension Partners The futures…CONTINUE READING

1 2 3 35