Author UPFINA

UPFINA discerns insight from noise as it pertains to the economy, investing and money. Whether you goal is to save, invest or retire, UPFINA helps simplify your decisions. The purpose is unabated truth. We encourage for you to read all content on this website with implicit skepticism. Listen to all, follow none. Challenge every statement made and juxtapose any and all information.

Will Inflation Increase In 2H 2018?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes As of the May PCE report, core inflation is at the Fed’s target of 2%. The PCE report is usually confirmation of what we already know because it comes out about a month after the time period it’s telling us about. The June PCE report doesn’t come out until July…CONTINUE READING

Traditional Labor Market Metrics Are Wrong

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Everyone wants to know when the labor market will hit full employment because the jobless claims and unemployment rate have been signaling the labor market has been full for over a year. The unemployment rate is 4%. The average trough in the unemployment rate in the past 10 business cycles…CONTINUE READING

Here’s Why Markets Aren’t Rallying

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Back To What Matters: Earnings The bulk of Q2 earnings season is approaching as many of the biggest firms will be reporting in the second half of July and the first half of August. Earnings season is great because it brings investors back to the central point of what moves…CONTINUE READING

No Peak In Sight?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Consumer confidence and small business confidence are very high, which signals the economy is doing well. They aren’t leading indicators of future expansion, but they also aren’t indicators of the coming demise of the cycle. Because the confidence levels are high before recessions, people mistakenly think they lead to recessions.…CONTINUE READING

Is Poverty Down?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes It’s well known that the economy hasn’t been working for a large percentage of the middle class and majority of the lower class because real wage growth has been practically nonexistent in most sectors of the economy despite the labor market showing strength suggesting that there is not enough labor…CONTINUE READING

2016 Was A Recession

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The US economy continues to outperform the rest of the world despite the fear of trade wars and with weakness in emerging markets and Europe. The chart below, using Haver Analytics data, gives an example of the stupendous U.S. growth. The current vertical increase is rivaling the improvement from 2010…CONTINUE READING

Increased Job Creation, No Real Wage Growth

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The June BLS employment report showed a lot of the same trends we’ve been seeing for the past couple years, with one outlier stat we will review later in the article. The total job growth was 213,000 which beat estimates for 190,000 jobs created. The slight weakness seen in the…CONTINUE READING

Are Top 10 Companies The Reason Behind Market Growth?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The number of American public companies is in decline. We have documented this trend in What The Number Of Public Companies Means. There has been an increase in concentration in many industries due to M&A activity. The giant internet firms, which have large moats, dominate their markets because they were early…CONTINUE READING

Income, GDP, PMI, ISM Growth/Decline Trends

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Weak Consumption Growth Due To Savings Increase Heading into the Personal Income and Outlays report, GDP growth estimates of above 4% were common. After the report, growth estimates were lowered because consumer spending missed expectations. After real consumer spending growth was only 0.9% in Q1, economists were looking for a…CONTINUE READING

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