Author UPFINA

UPFINA discerns insight from noise as it pertains to the economy, investing and money. Whether you goal is to save, invest or retire, UPFINA helps simplify your decisions. The purpose is unabated truth. We encourage for you to read all content on this website with implicit skepticism. Listen to all, follow none. Challenge every statement made and juxtapose any and all information.

Consumer Prices Rise Highest Since 2007

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Reading Time: 5 minutes One of the major trends of 2018 is likely to be the acceleration of inflation growth, as we have discussed previously in the following articles: Why Inflation Will Increase In 2018 Long-Term Inflation Pressures The Fed has longed for inflation for years because it consistently has been below its goal…CONTINUE READING

Federal Reserve Dilemma Suggests Higher Inflation

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The economy looks like it has momentum as of the beginning of 2018 based on most indicators. For example, retail sales growth was 5.4% in December and 4.2% for all of 2017 which was up from the 3.2% growth in 2016. However, retail sales in January declined 0.3% compared with…CONTINUE READING

Delinquencies & Savings Rate: Truth In Details

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Delinquency rates on credit cards are important because GDP is mostly driven by the consumer. If the consumer can’t borrow money to buy goods and services, a recession is in the cards. This is probably why the chart below has gone viral among the bearish investors. The delinquency rate on…CONTINUE READING

Price Inflation Distribution Is Not Uniform In US

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Price inflation is one of the most important economic metrics as it affects the purchasing power of the consumer, monetary policy, and asset valuations. Those who quibble with which metric is the most important try to determine which one is the catalyst for others. That’s like asking whether the chicken…CONTINUE READING

Timing The Next Recession

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Over the long term markets take money from those with lazy/poor analysis and give it to those who do rigorous analysis and stick with it. In the past few years, there have been some prognosticators who claimed the economy was ‘due for a recession’ because there usually is one about…CONTINUE READING

Is The Economy Healthy? Fed Rates Up, Loan Growth Down

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Reading Time: 6 minutes Some critics of the Federal Reserve said that it wouldn’t unwind the balance sheet. Their criticism got louder after the first few months of the unwind at the end of 2017 because the balance sheet size went up and down without a discernibly clear downtrend. However, as evidenced in the chart…CONTINUE READING

Can February’s Selloff Cause A Recession?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The stock market sold off 10% in early February, leaving some investors panicked as they hadn’t seen a selloff in well over a year. Stocks were in a record streak without a 3% and 5% decline. Stock market declines of at least 10% happen every 357 trading days, so this…CONTINUE READING

No More Negative Yielding Bonds?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes In most older finance and economics books, you won’t see negative interest rates discussed because it seems like such an absurd concept. Why pay someone for the right to lend your money to them? This unthinkable concept became mainstream starting in 2014. Negative rates occurred because of a confluence of…CONTINUE READING

Total Credit Card Debt Is Increasing

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Studying the health of the consumer is very difficult because there are so many stats which show different results. In fact, sometimes the same study can show support for opposing conclusions. Let’s start by looking at the negatives, one of which is total credit card debt. As you can see…CONTINUE READING

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