wage growth

The Reason Behind Rising Yields

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Headline September job growth missed estimates, but the positive revisions to the July and August readings were bigger than the September miss. This explains why it’s best to look at the report holistically. There’s temptation to just look at the most recent month to get an early look at the…CONTINUE READING

World Trade Growth Expected To Decline From 4.9% To 3.7%

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The Personal Income and Outlays report is widely followed because it provides information on the two most important factors in macroeconomics: inflation and consumer spending. Even though it is delayed, the Fed watches this inflation reading the closest, thus making it very important. Month over month August PCE inflation was…CONTINUE READING

Yields Increase Based On Wages

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The top two stories in markets in September are the rally in U.S. stocks to record valuations versus the rest of the world according to price to book value and the sell off in long dated U.S. treasuries. Regardless of whether you follow the price to book value, US outperformance…CONTINUE READING

Was The August Jobs Report Good or Bad?

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The most interesting part of reviewing the labor market stats is how two analysts can look at the same data and can extrapolate completely different conclusions. We’ll show you the positive and negative theses from the August labor report. First let’s review the headlines. Even in the headlines there is…CONTINUE READING

Is Real Fed Funds Rate Peaking?

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Q2 GDP growth was revised higher from 4.1% to 4.2% even though the estimate for real consumption growth was revised lower from 4% to 3.8%. That being said, the consumer had a strong rebound from Q1 and still drove GDP growth to an amazing result. The obvious question is whether…CONTINUE READING

New Risk Resistant Economy

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Recency bias is causing many investors and economists to believe we are in a new era of uncertainty because of the dot com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. It’s like saying inflation would always stay high after the bout of inflation caused by monetary policy mistakes in the late…CONTINUE READING

July Employment Report: 2 Years of Job Growth Left?

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It’s easy to get dismayed by the headlines because the total job growth in July was 157,000, which missed estimates for 190,000 jobs created. Usually, these reports have details which conflict with the headlines. This one is no different as the fundamentals of the labor market remain strong. The best…CONTINUE READING

Will There Be Real Wage Growth?

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The economy has witnessed lower nominal wage growth than previous times in this phase of the business cycle when the unemployment rate was at current levels. Depending on how you calculate inflation and which type of industry and workers you look at, real wages have either grown modestly or have…CONTINUE READING

Wage Growth & Blue Collar Jobs

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Studying the labor market to determine the strength of overall wage growth is challenging. There are many stats which contradict each other. Economics is like the stock market in that there is always a positive and a negative case. It’s best to hear both sides before formulating a conclusion. Having…CONTINUE READING

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