trade

The Trade War Just Started

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With the US stock market near its all-time high and having a solid year, it’s easy to miss out on the global growth deceleration. The global economy is by no means terrible, but it has seen deceleration as the global synchronized growth narrative disappeared, with emerging markets feeling a significant…CONTINUE READING

World Earnings Excluding Tech At Pre-Crisis Levels

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It’s hasn’t been surprising to see the Fed’s projections for rate hikes differ from the futures market in this expansion. The interesting part about the current divergence seen in the chart below is that the Fed could be near the end of the hike cycle.  Source: Pension Partners The futures…CONTINUE READING

The Bearish Cases For Equities In 2018

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In this article we will be reviewing some of the bearish cases for equities since they have overcome the correction earlier in the year and are now near record highs once again. The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 already beat their January highs, but the S&P 500 and the Wilshire…CONTINUE READING

Q2 Earnings: What’s Priced In?

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There’s an endless debate over what is priced in the market. Sometimes it seems like an obvious and predictable occurrence moves markets even though it should have been priced in. Other times a big event fails to move the market. Finally, the most confusing action is when the market moves…CONTINUE READING

Declining Global Trade Signals Recession

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Economic growth is driven by growth in the labor force and growth in productivity in the long run. Short run gains can be had by credit growth. However, if the debt gets too large, there is a painful deleveraging process where the chickens come home to roost. The best lever…CONTINUE READING