recession

Can February’s Selloff Cause A Recession?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The stock market sold off 10% in early February, leaving some investors panicked as they hadn’t seen a selloff in well over a year. Stocks were in a record streak without a 3% and 5% decline. Stock market declines of at least 10% happen every 357 trading days, so this…CONTINUE READING

Output Gap: A Recession Timing Indicator

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Output Gap Explained The output gap is the difference between actual and potential economic output and is used by economists to understand the health of the economy. There will never be a metric which tells us how the economy will perform with absolute certainty. Not only is it difficult to…CONTINUE READING

Are Stocks Fully Priced?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The question on many investors’ minds is can there be too much of a good thing? While GDP per capita has been low, the sustained growth which has been relatively consistent along with low inflation and a low amount of global conflict makes for a great stock market. Even low…CONTINUE READING

Central Banks Prevented 2016 Recession

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The economy was on the brink of recession in early 2016 and global coordinated central bank action helped prevent a crisis. Every time the Fed ‘kicks the can down the road’ it makes the inevitable situation worse. The further asset prices get from their intrinsic value, the worse the correction…CONTINUE READING