PCE

Is Real Fed Funds Rate Peaking?

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Q2 GDP growth was revised higher from 4.1% to 4.2% even though the estimate for real consumption growth was revised lower from 4% to 3.8%. That being said, the consumer had a strong rebound from Q1 and still drove GDP growth to an amazing result. The obvious question is whether…CONTINUE READING

What Amount of Inflation Is Good?

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The way you interpret the economic data released in the PCE and ECI reports depends on if you fear inflation or an economic slowdown more. It’s not an easy decision to make because on the one hand, the labor market is tightening and the cycle is probably near its end.…CONTINUE READING

How The Fed Could End The Bull Market

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With the new economic and trade policy policy commentary coming out of Washington seemingly on a daily basis, along with the much discussed stock correction from February, which was caused by the unwind of the short volatility trade, it’s easy to lose track of what the Fed will do in…CONTINUE READING

Consumer Prices Rise Highest Since 2007

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One of the major trends of 2018 is likely to be the acceleration of inflation growth, as we have discussed previously in the following articles: Why Inflation Will Increase In 2018 Long-Term Inflation Pressures The Fed has longed for inflation for years because it consistently has been below its goal…CONTINUE READING