interest rates

Housing Indicator Weakest Since 2009

By
By

The Economic Cycle Institute, which has been predicting a slowdown in the American economy since late 2017, released their home price leading index which shows similar bearishness. The housing market is the weakest part of the economy. Since American’s primary home is often their largest asset, a decline in prices…CONTINUE READING

Housing Market Declines First Time Since 2011

By
By

The most curious part of the economy is that while GDP grew 4.3% in Q2 and consumer sentiment is near a record high, the housing market has weakened. We will delve into the weakness in this article. To be clear, you should try to avoid recency bias in which you…CONTINUE READING

Link Between Inflation & Output Gap

By
By

The output gap is the highest since the 1970s suggesting that inflation should be significantly increasing in the coming years. However, can the two indicators both be correct, with there being subdued inflation as measured currently and with the economy above its potential?

CONTINUE READING

US Debt Becoming A Problem For The Dollar

By
By

Some analysts speculated if the Fed would try to keep rates low to support the government’s spending binge. However, instead of worrying about the debt, the $400 billion spending plan and the tax cuts are being used as an excuse to raise interest rates and let the government bonds on…CONTINUE READING

Buying/Renting Home vs Investing In Stocks

By
By

The conventional wisdom during the baby boom generation was that buying a house was a ticket to financial freedom. Because policy makers believed in this concept, since the late 90s there was an aggressive attempt to get people into homes they couldn’t afford. Obviously, over leveraging yourself with the purchase…CONTINUE READING

Can February’s Selloff Cause A Recession?

By
By

The stock market sold off 10% in early February, leaving some investors panicked as they hadn’t seen a selloff in well over a year. Stocks were in a record streak without a 3% and 5% decline. Stock market declines of at least 10% happen every 357 trading days, so this…CONTINUE READING

Is Powell The Next Federal Reserve Chairman?

By
By

President Trump will decide on who the next Fed chairperson will be sometime in between late October and early November. The unusual aspect of this decision is the only person who knows who Trump will pick is himself. This aspect has shown up lately as Jerome Powell has become the…CONTINUE READING

The Future of US Housing Market

By
By

The housing market is one of the most important industries in the US, as was on full display during 2008 when it brought down the entire economy. Many industries touch housing such as banks, insurance firms, and home builders. A house is the biggest purchase most people make their entire…CONTINUE READING

The Federal Reserve Bank Is Following, Not Leading

By
By

There is a prevailing belief that the Federal Reserve forecasts the economy accurately, which is why every word from Federal Reserve officials moves markets and is very critically examined. Previously we mentioned how some of the Federal Reserve assumptions about inflation and unemployment are inaccurate. It’s important to correct the inaccuracies…CONTINUE READING

1 2