consumer spending

New Risk Resistant Economy

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Recency bias is causing many investors and economists to believe we are in a new era of uncertainty because of the dot com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. It’s like saying inflation would always stay high after the bout of inflation caused by monetary policy mistakes in the late…CONTINUE READING

Retail Sales Per Capita Tells The Real Story…

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Headlines skew reality because the media’s goal is to generate attention, not get the specifics of stories correct. This isn’t to say all or even most journalism is bad; it’s simply that journalists don’t think like investors and headlines aren’t always accurate. It’s easy to misinterpret trends if you read…CONTINUE READING

What Amount of Inflation Is Good?

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The way you interpret the economic data released in the PCE and ECI reports depends on if you fear inflation or an economic slowdown more. It’s not an easy decision to make because on the one hand, the labor market is tightening and the cycle is probably near its end.…CONTINUE READING

Savings Rate Implication For Next Downturn

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Q2 GDP growth was impressive. In fact, the report was so good that the main criticism it is receiving is whether the economy can maintain this pace. The ECRI leading index doesn’t anticipate for this pace to be maintained because it is forecasting a slowdown. Obviously, that’s only one indicator,…CONTINUE READING

Consumer Spending: Is US At Risk Of Recession?

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Technology & Wages Drive Consumer Health In this article we will look at some of the trends in consumer spending which is the most important part of GDP growth. Previously we reviewed whether the average US consumer is healthy or not. The biggest worry long-term is that US consumers do not…CONTINUE READING

How Healthy Is The Consumer?

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The consumer is the lifeblood of the economy. Austrian economists differ from the mainstream viewpoint on what drives the economy as they say production drives economic growth whereas Keynesian economists believe that consumption and demand drives the economy. The truth is that both the consumer and the producer are important,…CONTINUE READING