RECENT ARTICLES

These Sectors & Companies Are Most Exposed To Higher Rates

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There are three main types of debt: household debt, corporate debt, and government debt. We think the most debate surrounds corporate debt because it is understood households have deleveraged this cycle and government debt has gotten worse. To be clear, there are debate on those categories because some say household…CONTINUE READING

Hotel Industry Signals Recession | JOLTS Amazingly Strong

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When reviewing industries, the information can add two separate layers of information Firstly, the research can help you understand specific industries and equities within those industries that are poised to provide the best returns. Secondly, it can give you a broader understanding of the macroeconomy. You can’t allow your macroeconomic…CONTINUE READING

85% Of Fund Managers Say Global Economy Is Late Cycle

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‘Smart’ money is capital run by professionals in the investment community and ‘dumb’ money is referred to capital invested by people who have a day job that’s not in finance. It’s not the nicest way of putting it, but the moniker makes sense. If you review consumer sentiment surveys, consumers…CONTINUE READING

Online Retail Sales Effects On GDP Growth

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In this article we will look at the explosive growth of online retail and the latest results from the September retail sales report. As you can see from the chart below, non-store retailers, which are online stores, have grown to 11.41% of total retail sales.  Source: Bloomberg Many younger Americans…CONTINUE READING

This Metric Hints Cycle Timing

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Consumers appear to be correct with the rate of change of their long run inflation expectations. In the latest survey, one year inflation estimates increased 0.1% to 2.8% and 5 year expectations fell 0.2% to 2.3%. As you can see from the chart below, this matches the cycle low for…CONTINUE READING

U.S. Households Are Overly Invested In Equities

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The fact that households have a large allocation to equities is viewed as a positive by some because it provides a floor for the market. Others view it as a negative because the ownership rate is unsustainably high. The logic that households need to invest in equities is the same…CONTINUE READING

Is There Supply Left In The Labor Force?

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The jobless claims to labor force population ratio hit a record low, the ISM labor market index hit a record high, the unemployment rate is the lowest since 1969, and September average weekly earnings growth of 3.35% was the 3rd highest in this expansion. Those are some of the powerful…CONTINUE READING

The Reason Behind Rising Yields

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Headline September job growth missed estimates, but the positive revisions to the July and August readings were bigger than the September miss. This explains why it’s best to look at the report holistically. There’s temptation to just look at the most recent month to get an early look at the…CONTINUE READING

Housing Indicator Weakest Since 2009

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The Economic Cycle Institute, which has been predicting a slowdown in the American economy since late 2017, released their home price leading index which shows similar bearishness. The housing market is the weakest part of the economy. Since American’s primary home is often their largest asset, a decline in prices…CONTINUE READING

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