RECENT ARTICLES

A Big Tail Risk In Strong Dollar Environment

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The media has been focused on the Turkish economy which has been sputtering lately, leading to a currency crisis. The word ‘contagion’ has become overused by the media since Turkey is such a small part of the economy. Turkish stocks are only 0.05% of the MSCI all world index. The…CONTINUE READING

The U.S. Is Unhealthy

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Reading Time: 5 minutes With the CPI showing only 1.9% year over year inflation in medical costs, it’s easy to forget about the extremely high costs Americans pay if you are an economist only looking at the government inflation metrics. If you speak with most Americans, they will laugh at the idea that medical…CONTINUE READING

Core Inflation Hasn’t Done This Since 2008

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Inflation could be the most important metric to follow because if it gets too high, the Fed will need to accelerate rate hikes which could cause a yield curve inversion and later a recession. One very important thing to keep in mind before we analyze the inflation numbers is the…CONTINUE READING

Revenue Growth Drives Shareholder Returns

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The market works in long term cycles even though it seems like changes occur often. There will always be news which drives short term action, but in the long run there are strategies which last for years or even decades. In the past 11 years, growth stocks have outperformed value…CONTINUE READING

Consumer & Business Leverage & Risks For Economy

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Reading Time: 5 minutes When the economy is near the end of the business cycle there tends to be excess leverage taken out by businesses and consumers. The recession washes away the bad loans to get back to equilibrium. It was important for the housing market to cool off after the run in the…CONTINUE READING

The Bearish Cases For Equities In 2018

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Reading Time: 5 minutes In this article we will be reviewing some of the bearish cases for equities since they have overcome the correction earlier in the year and are now near record highs once again. The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 already beat their January highs, but the S&P 500 and the Wilshire…CONTINUE READING

July Employment Report: 2 Years of Job Growth Left?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes It’s easy to get dismayed by the headlines because the total job growth in July was 157,000, which missed estimates for 190,000 jobs created. Usually, these reports have details which conflict with the headlines. This one is no different as the fundamentals of the labor market remain strong. The best…CONTINUE READING

Q2 Earnings: What’s Priced In?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes There’s an endless debate over what is priced in the market. Sometimes it seems like an obvious and predictable occurrence moves markets even though it should have been priced in. Other times a big event fails to move the market. Finally, the most confusing action is when the market moves…CONTINUE READING

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