Steeper Yield Curve & Improving PMI
The yield curve is steepening, the stock market is rallying, the US PMI is bottoming, and expectations for global profits are increasing
Read MoreDec 19, 2019
The yield curve is steepening, the stock market is rallying, the US PMI is bottoming, and expectations for global profits are increasing
Read MoreNov 8, 2019
Nominal GDP growth is expected to rebound in 2020, but there is very little evidence real growth will be strong in Q4 2019.
Read MoreAug 15, 2019
Yield curve inversions occur less than 2 years before recessions on average, but the story is more nuanced than that when looking at household leverage.
Read MoreMar 28, 2019
Don’t say stocks are being pushed down by treasuries. That’s a mistaken assertion based on the...
Read MoreMar 26, 2019
The yield curve is important because not only is it an economic indicator, it also impacts the...
Read MoreMar 25, 2019
The biggest story on Friday was that the spread between the 10 year yield and the 3 month yield...
Read MoreMar 22, 2019
Despite the late selloff on Friday, it’s safe to say investors buying stocks at current...
Read MoreDec 13, 2018
The Fed is being pushed in the dovish direction by markets as the stock market is falling and the...
Read MoreDec 10, 2018
The reflexivity theory assumes markets cause changes to the economy instead of merely reflecting...
Read MoreDec 6, 2018
Our goal is to present the best bullish and bearish cases for markets and the economy. We try to...
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