Negative Real Junk Bonds
Spreads are tight because of the easy Fed policy and the lack of expected risks in the economy.
Read MoreJun 18, 2021
Spreads are tight because of the easy Fed policy and the lack of expected risks in the economy.
Read MoreJun 17, 2021
This dot plot might be a misnomer because many FOMC members reacted to near term inflation
Read MoreJun 16, 2021
The 10 year yield usually falls after CPI peaks, but this time might be different because it was so obvious CPI would peak in May.
Read MoreJun 15, 2021
EPS growth peaked, as equities as a percentage of household assets just hit a record high.
Read MoreJun 14, 2021
This doesn’t mean stocks are immune from a correction. That’s why investors get paid a return above CDs.
Read MoreJun 11, 2021
Energy is tougher to predict. It could have a big impact on headline inflation in the 2nd half (could keep it high).
Read MoreJun 10, 2021
Low wage workers are getting real raises in the service sector. Interestingly, inflation can fall while oil prices rise.
Read MoreJun 9, 2021
The 10 year yield is much lower than core PCE inflation indicates. That’s because inflation is about to peak this summer.
Read MoreJun 8, 2021
The economy is headed back to normal; we just don’t know what normal looks like as inflation is peaking. Look for CPI to fall soon…
Read MoreJun 7, 2021
If job creation stays at this pace, it will take until July 2023 for the economy to recover all the jobs lost in the recession.
Read More