Monthly Archives: October, 2018

U.S. Households Are Overly Invested In Equities

By
By

The fact that households have a large allocation to equities is viewed as a positive by some because it provides a floor for the market. Others view it as a negative because the ownership rate is unsustainably high. The logic that households need to invest in equities is the same…CONTINUE READING

Is There Supply Left In The Labor Force?

By
By

The jobless claims to labor force population ratio hit a record low, the ISM labor market index hit a record high, the unemployment rate is the lowest since 1969, and September average weekly earnings growth of 3.35% was the 3rd highest in this expansion. Those are some of the powerful…CONTINUE READING

The Reason Behind Rising Yields

By
By

Headline September job growth missed estimates, but the positive revisions to the July and August readings were bigger than the September miss. This explains why it’s best to look at the report holistically. There’s temptation to just look at the most recent month to get an early look at the…CONTINUE READING

Housing Indicator Weakest Since 2009

By
By

The Economic Cycle Institute, which has been predicting a slowdown in the American economy since late 2017, released their home price leading index which shows similar bearishness. The housing market is the weakest part of the economy. Since American’s primary home is often their largest asset, a decline in prices…CONTINUE READING

Output Gap Most Negative Since 1980

By
By

This article will pack in as many economic signals as possible without it being too overwhelming. The list below shows 5 groupings of indicators which tell us the likely future performance of the consumer. The situation looks great as 17 out of 18 indicators are favorable and only one is…CONTINUE READING

Millennials Have Less Assets Than The Prior Generation

By
By

Many consumer confidence surveys depend on how people feel about their own lives since it’s what they know best. If they are asked about the economy, their answer probably tells us about their job prospects more than anything. Confidence is really high before recessions because that’s when the labor market…CONTINUE READING

World Trade Growth Expected To Decline From 4.9% To 3.7%

By
By

The Personal Income and Outlays report is widely followed because it provides information on the two most important factors in macroeconomics: inflation and consumer spending. Even though it is delayed, the Fed watches this inflation reading the closest, thus making it very important. Month over month August PCE inflation was…CONTINUE READING