Monthly Archives: September, 2018

Housing Market Declines First Time Since 2011

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The most curious part of the economy is that while GDP grew 4.3% in Q2 and consumer sentiment is near a record high, the housing market has weakened. We will delve into the weakness in this article. To be clear, you should try to avoid recency bias in which you…CONTINUE READING

How Are Median Americans Doing?

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What makes economics more frustrating than investing is that the truth is never completely settled. When you buy a stock with the plan to hold it for 5 years, the price in 5 years is guaranteed to tell you whether it was a good investment or not. Economic analysis is…CONTINUE READING

Household Wealth & Real Estate

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One of the most heated debates on whether the bull market has run its course is about household wealth. The bearish investors claim that since household wealth as a percentage of GDP is at a record, the cycle must end, while the bullish investors disagree because there is no specific…CONTINUE READING

Are Future Earnings Estimates Positive Or Negative?

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In this article we will look at what drives stock prices: valuations and earnings. Anytime we discuss monetary policy or the economy, we are doing so with the intention of figuring out how valuations and earnings will be affected. As you probably are aware of from our articles, the US…CONTINUE READING

Yields Increase Based On Wages

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The top two stories in markets in September are the rally in U.S. stocks to record valuations versus the rest of the world according to price to book value and the sell off in long dated U.S. treasuries. Regardless of whether you follow the price to book value, US outperformance…CONTINUE READING

The Debt Is High, But Does It Matter?

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The US stock market has been on a fantastic run in 2018 even though returns are close to the historical average because other markets have seen weakness. As you can see from the chart below, US stocks underperformed last cycle and outperformed this cycle.  Source: Bank Of America Merrill Lynch…CONTINUE READING

The Trade War Just Started

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With the US stock market near its all-time high and having a solid year, it’s easy to miss out on the global growth deceleration. The global economy is by no means terrible, but it has seen deceleration as the global synchronized growth narrative disappeared, with emerging markets feeling a significant…CONTINUE READING

Optimism Doesn’t Match Economic Growth

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In this article we will be showing various data points from different perspectives. We like to give you all the information to make the best possible decisions. The goal isn’t to push any narrative, political agenda, nor market perspective. The value provided is helping you understand the details behind various…CONTINUE READING

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