Monthly Archives: August, 2018

Is Real Fed Funds Rate Peaking?

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Q2 GDP growth was revised higher from 4.1% to 4.2% even though the estimate for real consumption growth was revised lower from 4% to 3.8%. That being said, the consumer had a strong rebound from Q1 and still drove GDP growth to an amazing result. The obvious question is whether…CONTINUE READING

Are You Paying For Your Neighbor’s Vacation?

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Financial security and stability have immense value just like any product or service. It can become a product as is the case with insurance. It’s clear financial stability has value, but how do we pay for it outside of insurance? The two most prominent ways we pay are through delayed…CONTINUE READING

New Risk Resistant Economy

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Recency bias is causing many investors and economists to believe we are in a new era of uncertainty because of the dot com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. It’s like saying inflation would always stay high after the bout of inflation caused by monetary policy mistakes in the late…CONTINUE READING

Will International Stocks Outperform U.S. Equities?

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In this article, we’ll question the narrative that you must go overweight US stocks relative to international equities. The sentiment has shifted dramatically as investors have gone from expecting mediocre returns from US stocks along with worrying about the end of the cycle, to now expecting new record highs. To…CONTINUE READING

Retail Sales Per Capita Tells The Real Story…

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Headlines skew reality because the media’s goal is to generate attention, not get the specifics of stories correct. This isn’t to say all or even most journalism is bad; it’s simply that journalists don’t think like investors and headlines aren’t always accurate. It’s easy to misinterpret trends if you read…CONTINUE READING

Are New Valuation Methods Valid?

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Some investors believe in maintaining the use of old models because they have historical precedence; new ideas can be risky to try. One example which comes to mind is when the 1990s tech firms were valued based on eyeballs instead of earnings. Believing in new models can easily turn into…CONTINUE READING

U.S. Economy Ramps While Global Growth Decelerates

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The longer American growth outperforms other international nations in rate of change terms, the more likely it is that the tax cuts, fiscal spending boost, and regulation reform are catalyzing the accelerated expansion. The US economy started improving in the second half of 2016 and has continued its momentum since…CONTINUE READING

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