Monthly Archives: July, 2018

Savings Rate Implication For Next Downturn

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Q2 GDP growth was impressive. In fact, the report was so good that the main criticism it is receiving is whether the economy can maintain this pace. The ECRI leading index doesn’t anticipate for this pace to be maintained because it is forecasting a slowdown. Obviously, that’s only one indicator,…CONTINUE READING

Is Trade War Still Biggest Market Tail Risk?

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Tariffs haven’t been affecting the U.S. stock market as much as they were earlier in the year since the S&P 500 is near its all-time high. Just because the market is ignoring the risk, doesn’t mean it is gone. It’s arguably more important to focus on risk when the market…CONTINUE READING

Timing End Of Business Cycle

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In this article we will take another look at the timing of the business cycle. First let’s review why this expansion has been so long. With Q2 GDP growth potentially reaching above 4% and the stock market near record highs, this expansion looks poised to exceed the length of the…CONTINUE READING

Will Stocks Rally To End 2018?

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Retail sales help us understand how well the consumer is as we await the June PCE report, which will be released on July 30th, and the Q2 real consumer spending growth which will be a large determinant of GDP growth. Earnings reports, economic reports such as the retail sales report,…CONTINUE READING

What Are Leading Indicators Showing For 2H 2018?

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Everyone wants to know where the stock market and the economy are moving next because that’s what determines the profitability of investments, timing for personal life decisions, business decisions such as investing in CAPEX or acquisitions and how governments decide to set policy. President Trump recently stated his trade policy…CONTINUE READING

Alternative View: GDP Growth

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The 2008 financial crisis was pivotal in the economic history of America, not only because it was large and almost toppled the nation’s financial system, but also because it catalyzed a deleveraging. Investors often refer to a deleveraging as a cleansing of the economic system because when debt is recklessly…CONTINUE READING

Are Houses Fairly Priced?

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Housing has been one of the biggest inflationary costs this business cycle as there has been problems creating enough affordable housing (apartments) in cities because of zoning restrictions. Housing has been boosting core PCE, making it a key driver in the Fed’s decision to raise the fed funds rate. A…CONTINUE READING

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