Monthly Archives: May, 2018

2018 Economy Is Much Different Than 2007

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The US economy has changed since the period leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. There is much to learn about this cycle because it is soon to be the longest since 1854. That means the economy will look much different in the year before the next recession than it…CONTINUE READING

Are Americans In Good Financial Shape?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes One of the biggest stories in personal finance in May came from the 2017 Report on the Economic Well-Being of Households from the Fed. The report has over 60 pages of interesting data points which mostly includes stats on the personal finance of Americans, but also touches on the opioid…CONTINUE READING

Myths & Facts: Fundamental Investing

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Reading Time: 5 minutes In this article we will review a couple of dynamic changes in the market and one myth which needs to be busted. One of the most important questions on Wall Street is if correlated metrics have a causal relationship. Even when relationships have been correlated for years, that doesn’t mean…CONTINUE READING

US Economic Growth Pushes Yields Higher

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The biggest trend in markets is the US economy’s outperformance over emerging markets and other developed economies. The data keeps adding up and expanding into a pervasive trend. Japan was added to the list of economies with tepid economic growth which fell to -0.2% in Q1, down from +0.6% in…CONTINUE READING

Home Renters Highest Since 1965

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Reading Time: 4 minutes There are two ways to look at the charts from Pew Research which shows the percentage of household heads who rent their home. The first is to say the percentage is going back to historical norms so there’s not much of a reason to worry. The second is to say…CONTINUE READING

Economy Not Working For Millennials

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Reading Time: 4 minutes The economic expansion from 2009-2018 hasn’t been helping most millennials because the biggest benefits have been gained by those who own assets like stocks. Without asset price improvements, this recovery hasn’t been great as the employment to population ratio has improved, but wage growth has been mediocre. The catastrophe that…CONTINUE READING

Recession In 2020 Is The Base Case

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Reading Time: 5 minutes In a previous article we showed that Guggenheim expects a recession in the 2nd half of 2019. Wall Street has the stigma that everything is always bullish, or as some managers say, “it’s always a good time to invest”, in order to receive more capital to manage even though they might…CONTINUE READING

Explanation Of Corporate Debt & Leveraged Loans

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Reading Time: 5 minutes There has been a huge increase in corporate debt to record levels, but the cost to service the debt is manageable because interest rates are low and investors are extremely sanguine. As you can see from the chart below, the spread between junk bonds and investment grade bonds is the…CONTINUE READING

European Economy Not On Trend With America

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The US and Europe are in significantly different situations in terms of economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy. America’s year over year core PCE is 1.9% as of March and its core CPI is 2.1% as of April. That’s exactly where the Fed wants inflation to be as the target…CONTINUE READING

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