Monthly Archives: January, 2018

Low Income Wage Growth At End Of Business Cycle

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Reading Time: 5 minutes From the research we’ve done in previous articles, it looks like the Fed might let inflation run hot, meaning it will be fine with core inflation above the 2% mandate. Keep in mind, the unwind of the balance sheet, which is pushing the shadow Fed funds rate higher, might restrict…CONTINUE READING

China’s Economic Growth Could Decline In 2018

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The Chinese economy had been seeing declining growth for the past 7 years up until 2017 as it transitions away from being based on manufacturing and toward services and consumption like the United States. Because the Chinese policy makers are more concerned with preventing financial bubbles, diversifying the economy, and…CONTINUE READING

Is US Housing About To Explode In Value?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes If you think about it, demographic changes explain a lot of the movement in asset prices. The technology bubble in the 1990s was boosted by baby boomers who were in their peak spending age and had a significant sum of money to speculate with. In 2000, at the height of…CONTINUE READING

Stocks Are Expensive: Bear Case

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Reading Time: 6 minutes Our previous article in this series reviewed the bullish case for equities. As you may imagine, it received a lot of criticism. The purpose of our content is to review both side of the debate. If you ignore arguments that may not agree with your thesis, there is a high…CONTINUE READING

Why Stocks Are A Buy Even Though They’re Expensive

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Previously, we did an article showing why the above average Shiller PE is bad for long term future stock returns. That’s a straightforward argument. The multiple is high, which means stocks are expensive. In a normal PE calculation, markets and stocks can be the worst buys when they have low…CONTINUE READING

On The Precipice Of Collapse?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes When attempting to understand the importance of events and likely probabilities of future outcomes its critical to be open minded. As long as you are not reading boom or gloom content, there are often moments when the same concept gains a new meaning if you slightly alter your perspective. Instead…CONTINUE READING

Quantitative Tightening Could Accelerate In 2018

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Although Yellen is a ‘lame duck’ central banker now that Jerome Powell was selected to take the helm in February, she’s still making headlines for unorthodox statements. As you should be well aware, the yield curve is one of the best recession warnings that exist, something we’ve discussed previously in…CONTINUE READING

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